Every pick below is measured the same way: the player's value over replacement at his position, compared to what that draft slot should have returned (par). One honest caveat before the grades: this math runs on Sleeper's projections, which spread running backs wide and compress elite receivers and quarterbacks. That means the model sometimes docks picks that every consensus board endorses — taking Ja'Marr Chase second overall is chalk, not a blunder. Where the model and the market disagree, we say so and let you decide which to trust. Where a pick is bad by both standards, that's a real miss.
| Rank |
Team |
Manager |
VOR vs. Par |
Grade |
| 1 |
Spin Cycle |
troyk2023 |
+52.6 |
A+ |
| 2 |
crotchetyrocket |
crotchetyrocket |
+44.8 |
A |
| 3 |
Royal Wood |
F3RoyalWood |
+24.3 |
A |
| 4 |
Taco Bell |
Gazelle5 |
+21.7 |
A− |
| 5 |
ToneDeff The Destroyer |
caleballen |
+19.2 |
B+ |
| 6 |
Sauerkraut |
F3Sauerkraut |
+14.7 |
B |
| 7 |
Ditchweed |
dexterdeeds |
+8.3 |
B |
| 8 |
Trouble Tickets |
F3HelpDesk |
−4.2 |
B− |
| 9 |
MonopolyMike |
MonopolyMike |
−5.4 |
C+ |
| 10 |
SisterHazel |
SisterHazel |
−42.3 |
C |
| 11 |
Boiling Point |
MooreDubs34 |
−63.1 |
C− |
| 12 |
F3Toto |
F3Toto |
−70.6 |
C− |
1. Spin Cycle — A+ (+52.6)
Bijan Robinson at 1.03 was the safe part; he still beat par by 37. The grade comes from what followed: Brock Bowers at 2.10 — the top tight end by a comfortable margin at 202.5, sixteen points clear of Trey McBride — David Montgomery at pick 51 (+22 on par), and Trevor Lawrence at pick 118, a quarterback projecting 303.4. That's more than Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, or Justin Herbert, who went 30 to 45 picks earlier — a steal by the model and by any ADP sheet. The blemishes are bench-sized: Michael Wilson in round 7 was a reach, and Zach Charbonnet (61.7, ACL/PUP) is a round-11 dart. Best draft in the league, and it isn't particularly close.
2. crotchetyrocket — A (+44.8)
No splash pick anywhere — just relentless accumulation. Omarion Hampton at 2.21 (+22), Christian Watson in round 6 (+21), Brian Thomas in round 8 (+19), Kyle Monangai in round 10 (+14), and Jalen Hurts at pick 76 at exactly market price. The model's least favorite pick is DJ Moore at 52 (−29) — a fair market price, but a player Sleeper projects at just 147.5 in Buffalo. The RB room — Taylor, Hampton, Skattebo, Monangai — is four deep with startable players, which is how you survive September. Waiting until pick 165 on a defense and landing exactly replacement value (DAL) is the accumulator's move in miniature.
3. Royal Wood — A (+24.3)
The value engine here was patience at the right spots: De'Von Achane at 2.14 (+11), Mike Evans falling to round 6 (+25), and Seattle's defense at pick 110 — the best DEF value in the draft (+16). Ashton Jeanty at 11 shows −15, but that one's a model-market split: consensus had Jeanty going several picks earlier, and Sleeper's 211.4 is simply colder on him than the room was. The genuinely odd part is construction: five tight ends — Warren, Fannin, Ferguson, Hockenson, Gadsden — on a 14-round roster, plus two starting-caliber QBs. That's a fifth of the roster at a position that starts one, and the Power Index (7th at 99.3/wk) shows what those slots could have bought instead.
4. Taco Bell — A− (+21.7)
Ja'Marr Chase at 1.02 is the consensus pick — he's top-three on every board that matters, and nobody should apologize for it. The model shows −45 there only because it spreads RBs wider than WRs; treat that as the model's opinion, not a draft error. What's true by any standard: Josh Allen at 2.23 carries a 66-point edge over a replacement QB — the biggest positional advantage on any roster in this league — and Nico Collins (+19) and Parker Washington in round 7 (+24) were clean value. Two defenses including the league's best (LAR, 106), Mahomes as insurance. Second in the Power Index, first in playoff odds at 70%. The A− is the model being stingy about a pick the market loves.
5. ToneDeff The Destroyer — B+ (+19.2)
The most disciplined value drafting outside the top two: Kenneth Walker at 2.16 (+12), Jameson Williams (+7), J.K. Dobbins (+5), Brock Purdy at pick 105 (+4), and nothing worse than Quentin Johnston's −10 in round 8. Seven wide receivers, all of them rosterable. The problem isn't any pick that happened — it's the two that didn't: no defense in fourteen rounds (the league's only unfilled starting slot, a guaranteed weekly zero until a waiver claim fixes it) and Juwan Johnson as the TE answer, 13 points below replacement. Good process, incomplete roster: B+ grade, 12th in the Power Index. Both are true.
6. Sauerkraut — B (+14.7)
James Cook and Chase Brown (+22 at 2.19) form a top-tier RB start, and Bhayshul Tuten in round 6 added another +10. The give-backs were positional timing: Jaxson Dart at pick 78 (−13) was paying a QB-run price for the QB12, and Ladd McConkey at 3.30 went about a round ahead of the projection (−10). Drafting both Dart and Sam Darnold spent two slots on a position that starts one. Solid spine, fuzzy edges — a B that could have been an A− with the QB picks swapped for one QB and a flex.
7. Ditchweed — B (+8.3)
Christian McCaffrey at pick 8 (+18) was the draft's best first-round value after Bijan, and Jayden Reed at pick 113 (+25) was its best round-10 pick, full stop. In between, the board leaked in small, mostly market-priced ways — A.J. Brown (−12) and Kyle Pitts (−12) went where they always go and the model just isn't a believer; Justin Herbert at pick 89 graded exactly replacement. Jordyn Tyson (90.5, hamstring/IR) is a round-11 stash that pays only if health cooperates. The CMC–Javonte–Etienne RB room is legitimately strong; the WR room after AJB is a weekly guess.
8. Trouble Tickets — B− (−4.2)
Puka Nacua at 7 beat par (+5), and rounds 5–6 were sharp: Terry McLaurin (+6), Rome Odunze (+13). Breece Hall at 2.18 is the model's least favorite consensus pick on this roster — a normal market slot for Hall, but Sleeper projects him at 192.5, RB14 production. The clearer process cost was doubling quarterbacks in the dead zone (Caleb Williams pick 79, Bo Nix pick 103, a combined −14) for a position that starts one. And yet: 4th in the Power Index at 99.9/wk, with two top-half defenses. This is the league's clearest proof that a middling draft score and a good roster can coexist.
9. MonopolyMike — C+ (−5.4)
Amon-Ra St. Brown at 5 reads −32 in this model, and that one's mostly a philosophical dispute: ARSB in the top five is a normal board play, and the dock reflects Sleeper spreading RBs wider than elite receivers. The middle rounds were genuinely good — D'Andre Swift (+13) and Quinshon Judkins (+15) in rounds 4–5, Jayden Daniels at market, Kelce at a fair 8th-round price. What actually costs a grade here: rounds 9 through 12 returned nothing (Corum, Downs, Allen, Marks — all replacement or below). A strong middle wrapped in a quiet start and an empty finish; 8th in the Power Index and one hot month from relevance.
10. SisterHazel — C (−42.3)
Through four rounds this was a clean sheet: Barkley at par, CeeDee Lamb (−5), Jeremiyah Love (+3), Tetairoa McMillan (−3). Rounds 5 through 7 took the grade apart — and unlike the elite-WR debates above, these were projection and process problems: Joe Burrow at pick 58 (−20) came off the board in a QB run with better value sitting there, Tucker Kraft (−11) went a round early, and RJ Harvey at 82 (−12) projects at exactly replacement. From round 5 onward, only the Ravens defense (+9) beat par. The starting lineup is fine — 10th in the Index, close enough to the pack to matter — but the draft's back half added almost nothing to it.
11. Boiling Point — C− (−63.1)
Read this grade with the model's bias in mind, because this roster is its sharpest disagreement with the market. Justin Jefferson at 12 is a fall by consensus — he's a top-half-of-round-one player on most boards — but Sleeper projects him at 205.4, sixth among WRs in this draft, so the model scores it −30. Lamar Jackson at 36 (−21) is likewise a normal price the projections refuse to endorse. Derrick Henry at 2.13 (+13) was the unambiguous win; DK Metcalf (−12) and Courtland Sutton (−18) were mid-round prices for fourth-round projections by both standards. If Jefferson and Lamar play to reputation instead of projection, this is the grade that ages worst in the league. That's the bet — a defensible one — that was made.
12. F3Toto — C− (−70.6)
Jahmyr Gibbs at 1.01 returned exactly par — the correct pick, made correctly. Several of the deltas that follow are market-priced picks the model is cold on: Rashee Rice at 2.24 (−18), Drake Maye at 48 (−20), George Kittle at 49 (−28) all went roughly where ADP says they go. If you re-grade those at market, this draft is middle of the pack — which is why the headline is what it is: Josh Jacobs at pick 72, projecting 80.2 with a groin injury and a DNR tag, is the one pick here that's wrong by every standard at once. An injured, do-not-return-tagged back at a slot where par was strongly positive is the draft's only true error of process, and it moved this grade from the crowd to the cellar. The Houston defense at 96 (+11) was genuinely good, and 9th in the Power Index says the roster is livelier than the letter grade.
A good grade is not a good ceiling
Check these grades against the Power Index and the two lists disagree in instructive ways. Trouble Tickets graded B− but projects 4th in weekly output. F3Toto graded C− but projects 9th, not 12th. Royal Wood graded A and sits 7th. Drafting well measures process — how much value you extracted from where you picked. The rankings measure the roster you actually left with. This league currently separates the two, and the season will decide which one mattered.
